Blended gross margin vs. the 65% guardrail. Below 60% = growth becomes unsustainable. CM is after platform fees, commissions, fulfillment, shipping & ad spend.
Channel mix & ad spend (CAC) per order
Weights set the blended figures. Ad spend is the modeled CAC absorbed per order on each channel — the line that turns a healthy gross margin into a thin contribution margin.
Product × Channel — contribution margin %
■ ≥ target
■ 30%–target
■ < 30% · click any cell to load its waterfall ↓
Waterfall —
Assumptions confirmedestimate
Channel comparison —
Instagram Shop drives traffic to Shopify checkout (Meta retired native US checkout) — model it as DTC economics + a Meta ad CAC.
PHASE 1 · MANUAL MODEL · Fees verified June 2026 · COGS confirmed Vermont Soap Apr 2026
Bootstrapped to a $100M+ exit — profitability on the first purchase, every channel, every unit.